How El Nino may impact agriculture and monsoon this year?
Synopsis
El Niño, a weather phenomenon, disrupts ocean currents, temperatures and weather conditions across the world, leading to changes in global atmospheric circulation and longer, colder winters in certain regions. In India, it causes the monsoon season to experience below-normal rainfall, droughts, and inadequate crop yield. According to the Indian Meteorological Department, there is a 70% probability of El Niño impacting the monsoon season in June ..
Today, the entire world is battling with challenges like extreme climate changes, unpredictable rainfall and irregular weather patterns. El Niño, a climate pattern, is considered to be the primary reason causing such disruptions.
The phenomenon of El Niño
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a series of interconnected weather and ocean-related phenomena. It is also characterized by changes in atmospheric pressure. El Niño is the ‘warm phase’ of the ENSO and La Niña is its cold phase. La Niña events follow El Niño, which occur at irregular intervals of about two to seven years. But El Niño usually happens more frequently than La Niña.
When El Niño occurs, coastal waters in the eastern tropical Pacific become warmer and the atmospheric pressure above the ocean decreases. It severely impacts ocean temperatures, the speed and strength of ocean currents and even on the planet’s weather conditions. Such events also affect global atmospheric circulation and even lead to various regions dealing with longer, colder winters.
El Niño leads to warm weather on the Indian subcontinent in the winter season and dry, inadequate monsoons in the summers. It further impacts agriculture and can even lead to a drought-like scenario and loss of crops.
The impact of El Niño phenomenon on the monsoon season in India
In India, the El Niño phenomenon is usually associated with impacting monsoons, leading to below-normal rainfall and bringing severe droughts. Between 2001 to 2020, the country witnessed seven El Niño years. Out of these, four years led to droughts and this time period also witnessed summer-sown output decline. The phenomenon’s worst impact was seen in 2009-2010 when El Niño resulted in severe drought in the southern and western regions and significantly delayed rainfall.
As per the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), this year, there is a 70% probability of El Niño disrupting the monsoon in the months of June, July and August. The IMD also predicts that La Niña phase has concluded and the transition to the El Niño phase has already begun. The effects will be noticeable in the second half of the monsoon
season between July to September this year.
El Niño disrupting the Indian agricultural landscape
Indian agrarian economy depends heavily on monsoon for good yield. El Niño events are detrimental to crops and even lead to yield damage further leading to rising food prices. This year, it is expected that El Niño may impact the weather conditions in the country and, in turn, affect the agriculture sector.
Unusual rains in March this year have already disrupted agricultural activities in India. India will likely receive below-normal monsoon rains and unpredictable rainfall, with the El Niño phenomenon taking over the global scenario. As per IMD, India will experience a severe pre and post-monsoon phenomenon and this will impact the agriculture sector. Its long-term impact would be on the Indian economy as shortage of commodities may lead to a surge in inflation.
This year, with El Niño’s occurrence, if rainfall is impacted, then crops like rice sugar, cereals, pulses, etc., may be affected and this can lead to a shortage of essential food items, further causing inflation.
It is projected that El Niño will impact the rainfall pattern and lead to severe heatwaves and drought. The states of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh will witness below-normal levels of rainfall during the second half of the monsoon season.
To sum up
India can overcome the impact inflicted by El Niño by implementing contingency plans at the district level. Initiatives introducing seeds of late sowing variety, water conservation and management, and keeping a check on the monsoon while maintaining natural water bodies will help in transforming the agricultural industry and making it resilient enough to deal with challenges like El Niño.
Additionally, promoting sustainable farming is essential as it focuses on environmentally-friendly techniques and can help in reducing El Niño’s impact on the Indian agricultural landscape and crop yield. It is vital that the government and policymakers come up with protocols and initiatives that can protect India against its reliance on rainfall and minimize El Niño’s impact.
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